Orlando business confidence soars to record high

The latest business statistics from Orlando paint a picture of steady growth mixed with new economic realities in 2024. Our analysis of Orlando Economic Partnership data shows total sales in the region hit $169 billion in the first nine months of 2024, up 4.3% from 2023, while business confidence reached a peak at 82.1% in Q3.

Here in Central Florida, businesses face an interesting mix of opportunities and hurdles. While revenue growth stayed strong through most of 2024, with 61% of local companies reporting increased revenue in Q3, mounting cost pressures have pushed companies to rethink their strategies. The big surprise? Insurance costs emerged as the most impactful challenge, with 31% of Orlando businesses rating insurance cost increases as “severe” on their operations.

I’ve dug into the latest Orlando MSA Business Conditions Survey and market updates to break down what’s really happening in our business community. From sales trends to real estate metrics, these numbers tell us where Orlando’s economy stands right now and where it might head in 2025. Let’s look at the data that matters most to your business.

Business performance highlights

Orlando’s business confidence hit a record high in Q3 2024, with 82.1% of companies expressing optimism about their future – that’s a 41.2 percentage point jump from 2023. This spike comes from two key factors: a better outlook on the U.S. economy and strong local market conditions.

Local revenue numbers back up this confidence. From July through September 2024, 61% of Orlando businesses reported higher revenue, while just 10% saw declines. Q3 performance metrics show companies aren’t just making more money – they’re getting better at what they do. Innovation rates climbed to 58%, with businesses rolling out new products and improving their operations.

Yet profitability tells an interesting story. While 51% of businesses increased their profits in Q3, this happened against a backdrop of rising costs. The data shows companies found ways to grow despite challenges like higher insurance premiums and wage pressures.

Here’s a detailed breakdown of Orlando’s business performance metrics for Q3 2024:

Performance Metric	Increased	Stayed Same	Decreased	Not Applicable
Revenue	61%	24%	10%	5%
Innovation	58%	30%	2%	10%
Profitability	51%	26%	14%	9%
Investment	42%	40%	11%	7%
Employment	41%	47%	8%	4%

Looking at quarter-over-quarter changes:

Net Balance*	Q3 2024	Q2 2024	Q1 2024	Q4 2023	Change from Q2
Revenue	50%	48%	38%	36%	+2%
Innovation	57%	54%	56%	51%	+3%
Profitability	37%	34%	27%	17%	+3%
Investment	31%	33%	33%	30%	-2%
Employment	33%	26%	28%	19%	+7%

Cost challenges for Orlando businesses

Insurance costs became the biggest financial hurdle for Orlando businesses in 2024. The numbers are striking – 31% of local companies reported “severe” impacts from insurance cost increases, with premiums rising by an average of 5.3%. But that’s just the average – many businesses faced double-digit increases in their premiums.

Employee benefits rank as the second most significant cost pressure. Our data shows 81% of Orlando companies dealt with rising benefit costs, with an average increase of 4.4%. What’s notable is how these increases affected different business sectors – healthcare and professional services firms reported the highest jumps in benefit expenses.

Supply chain and energy costs tell a different story in 2024. While 64% of businesses still face supply chain cost pressures, the average increase dropped to 2.8% – a sign that supply chains might finally stabilize. Transportation costs stayed relatively modest at 2.9% average increases, though 54% of companies still report ongoing pressures in this area.

Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of cost pressures facing Orlando businesses in Q3 2024:

Cost Category	% of Businesses Affected	Average Cost Increase	Severe Impact	Moderate Impact	Mild Impact	No Impact
Insurance	81%	5.3%	31%	40%	24%	4%
Employee Benefits	78%	4.4%	18%	38%	38%	5%
Wages	84%	4.2%	15%	51%	30%	4%
Supply Chain	64%	2.8%	14%	38%	40%	8%
Energy	58%	3.6%	6%	32%	52%	10%
Transportation	54%	2.9%	6%	32%	56%	5%
Rent	54%	2.3%	6%	31%	66%	1%

Real estate market impact

Orlando’s commercial real estate landscape went through significant changes in 2024. Office space vacancy rates held at 17.1% in Q3, while asking rates averaged $27.42 per square foot – a 2.4% increase from 2023. This puts Orlando in a unique position, with office rates well below other major Florida markets like Miami ($55.79) and Tampa ($30.12).

The industrial market tells a different story. Vacancy rates climbed to 8.1% in Q3 2024, reaching their highest point since early 2015. This shift comes after nearly 5 million square feet of new industrial space hit the market in the first nine months of 2024. Yet Orlando’s industrial rental rates remain competitive at $10.29 per square foot, making it one of the most affordable major markets in Florida.

Here’s the current state of Orlando’s commercial real estate market:

Market Segment	Q3 2024 Metrics	Change from Q2 2024	Change from 2023
Office Market
Vacancy Rate	17.1%	-0.1%	+1.5%
Average Asking Rate	$27.42	+0.4%	+2.4%
Net Absorption (YTD)	-289,571 SF	—	—
Under Construction	0 SF	—	—
Industrial Market
Vacancy Rate	8.1%	+0.7%	+3.0%
Average Asking Rate	$10.29	+8.4%	-7.0%
Net Absorption (YTD)	-422,103 SF	—	—
Under Construction	2,286,900 SF	—	—

Submarket comparison – average asking rates

Office Submarket	Rate per SF
Airport/Lake Nona	$35.34
Winter Park	$29.54
Millenia/Metrowest	$28.96
Tourist Corridor	$28.52
Lake Mary/Heathrow	$27.27
Maitland	$24.78
Lee Road	$23.99
Longwood	$19.38

Small business growth indicators

Orlando’s small business sector shows strong growth signs despite economic pressures. Data from Q3 2024 reveals 67% of local businesses expect to increase revenue in the next three months – up from 61% in Q2. This optimism stems from improving client sentiment and reduced recession fears.

Investment plans paint a more cautious picture. While 32% of Orlando businesses plan to boost investments in the next quarter, that’s down from 37% in Q2 2024. Companies cite rising insurance costs and political uncertainty as key factors in holding back major spending decisions until after the November elections.

Here’s how Orlando businesses view their growth prospects:

Growth Indicator	Q3 2024	Q2 2024	Q1 2024	Q4 2023	Trend
Revenue Outlook
Expect Increase	67%	61%	65%	52%	↑
Expect No Change	21%	25%	23%	35%	↓
Expect Decrease	6%	8%	7%	9%	↓
Investment Plans
Planning Increase	32%	37%	38%	34%	↓
Planning No Change	52%	48%	47%	51%	↑
Planning Decrease	7%	9%	8%	10%	↓
Business Confidence
Confident	86%	42%	70%	46%	↑
Neutral	37%	41%	23%	38%	↓
Not Confident	4%	17%	7%	16%	↓

Top Growth Opportunities Cited by Businesses:

New Client Acquisition: 55%
Sector-Specific Growth: 47%
Local Market Expansion: 46%
Internal Process Improvements: 44%

Consumer spending and market activity

Total sales in Orlando hit $169 billion through Q3 2024, showing a 4.3% increase over the same period in 2023. But Q3 brought interesting shifts – growth slowed to 1.5% as inflation cooled and tourism spending eased. December data hints at the first year-over-year decline in 16 months, with sales dropping 4.3% compared to December 2023.

Consumer sentiment tells a positive story. The index reached 78.3 in September – up 12 points from last year. Florida residents feel better about the economy, which shows in spending patterns across retail, entertainment, and services. This rise in consumer confidence matches what we see in business outlook, where 47% of companies feel good about U.S. economic prospects.

Here’s a detailed look at Orlando’s market activity:

Quarter 2024	Total Sales	% Change vs 2023	Consumer Sentiment	Consumer Spending
Q1	$57.2B	+4.2%	71.5	$26.8B
Q2	$59.2B	+7.2%	75.2	$27.1B
Q3	$52.8B	+1.5%	78.3	$25.6B

Monthly consumer activity trends

Month 2024	Total Sales	Consumer Spending	Sentiment Index
October	$17.4B	$8.5B	81.1
November	$16.5B	$8.3B	83.4
December*	$16.5B	$8.3B	86.4
*Preliminary data

Business revenue performance

Revenue Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2024	Q1 2024
Increased	61%	58%	55%
Stable	24%	30%	32%
Decreased	10%	8%	9%
Not Reported	5%	4%	4%

2025 business outlook

Orlando businesses head into 2025 with mixed expectations. While 67% expect revenue growth in the next three months, investment plans show more caution. Just 32% of companies plan to increase spending – down from 37% last quarter. Many businesses point to the upcoming election as a reason to hold off on major decisions.

Cost management remains front and center for 2025 planning. Our data shows 63% of Orlando companies cut operational costs in 2024, while 47% renegotiated contracts. What’s interesting is only 16% reduced staff – suggesting local businesses value talent retention even when facing cost pressures.

Here’s what Orlando businesses project for early 2025: